I.a Modelling Structures and Calculations (I)

OBJECTIVES

  • Learn the importance of sensitivity analysis and how to implement it.
  • Master the core features, operations and short-cuts of Excel required to build common types of simple models.
  • Gain practical experience in building and using models.

DESCRIPTION

  • Overview. This course covers the most fundamental types of calculations and structures that are required in modelling. It begins with the topic of sensitivity analysis, describing how this is essential when designing, building and using models, and includes exercises relating to sensitivity analysis in various modelling contexts, including one- and two-way analysis, and time-based forecasting models. It describes forecasting approaches using growth-rates and ratios, as well as logic reversals, corkscrews and reverse-corkscrew structures. 
  • Practical work and exercises. Students are required to conduct numerous hands-on modelling exercises and can also follow along by replicating other examples that are shown in the text.
  • Assessment tests. There are several assessment tests which test the key concepts and require one to do practical exercises in Excel, including for breakeven analysis, general forecasting using growth and ratios, sensitivity analysis, and more!

KEY TOPICS

  • Sensitivity analysis. Uses and importance. Sensitivity analysis in model designManual and automatic sensitivity analysis. DataTables. One-way analysis. Two-way analysis. Sensitivity analysis in time-based forecasts. Using GoalSeek.
  • Common calculations and modelling structures. Growth-based forecasting, ratio-driven calculations, mapping historical data and forecast assumptions, logic reversals, corkscrews and reverse corkscrews.

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